Added on Thu 17 Apr 2008
Microsoft is in the early stages of laying out the foundation of the next version of Windows, Windows 7. Since Windows Vista doesn’t seem to have captured peoples imagination and certainly hasn’t lived up to expectation. I started to wonder what I would do if I were Microsoft looking towards the next generation of the OS and what lessons I might have learned from the Vista experience.
This is just a hunch, but it seems that many companies like Microsoft have a major flaw in their thinking. They don’t seem to spend any time looking outside their own 4 walls when thinking about where they should be heading and the future direction of their customers. The problem is they get blinkered into their own heritage-derived way of thinking. I’ll exaggerate this but, I can imagine someone at MS asking their staff “how can we make Windows better?” When maybe they should be asking “How can we make Windows into want our customers want?” In a nutshell, I think the concept of a perfect Operating System has changed over the years as our use of technology and computers have also changed. The problem is that MS is still pursuing the same perfect OS it first imagined probably back in about 1990 if not earlier.
I suppose MS does do a lot of research into that sort of thing, but still, Vista turned out to be not much of a reincarnation! How could that have happened? Wasn’t it suppose to be a revelation or something? Reading further, I can see that MS development cycle is focused on gradual, stable improvements. But I’m afraid that, at such a gradual rate, it will get out paced by both the competition and in the changing way we relate to computers.
I suppose it has something to do with asking the right questions. If we ask a bunch of Windows users – “Would you like to have a bunch of different things in Windows improved?” I guess they would all say “yeah ok…” but that doesn’t mean you’re on the right path. Well… that’s a bit presumptuous of me, people who do that type of research for living must already know that sort of thing? So I don’t know if that is really the situation?
Anyway, that’s not really the main topic of my post. I don’t care exactly how they ended up in this situation… I would rather think about what they should do next. ‘But wait a minute…’ I’m thinking as I read this back. What is their situation anyway?
Well, I have a perception that Windows has not been all that well received of late. But looking at their market share figures, they are still by far the supremely dominate OS. Market share of 96% a few years ago although now down to 92% or 93% in 2008. Naturally, depending on how you find out those figures out you’ll get a slightly different picture each time. But they all do acknowledge there is a significant market lead and more or less, the figures have been dropping off slightly of late.
That could mean that there is really nothing to worry about. But history has shown that the moment you starting thinking that, that’s when things start to go wrong. In this instance too, I suspect that the market is a very fickle place, more so than others. Let’s see… well, thanks to the iPod and iPhone, Apple have gained a significant amount of ‘good will’. As quickly as a shift in fashion, MS could be out and Apple in. I mean, it’s not like the Max OS is all that bad either! So all the elements are there for a rapid change in the market share of Windows and MacOS. And that’s in an environment where Apple still refuses to sell the Mac OS on anything but an Apple PC’s (they’re PC’s now, not Macs! lets face it!) So what would happen if Apple suddenly decided to grant ‘Apple ticks of approval’ to certain PC vendors and PC hardware? Allowing such hardware to run Mac OS? 92% Market share for MS would half overnight… wouldn’t it?
In the end, I think where MS finds itself now, is on the verge of becoming complacent, which inturn can quickly lead to forced retirement! Either forced there by a fast moving Apple or a couple of very smart software hippies who manage to incorporate the greater society into their design for a friendly (and I mean friendly!) version of Linux. (That can play PC games as well please?)
So if I were MS, I would be thinking…. time for a change. Whatever we do, we can’t simply look at Windows 7 as simply taking Windows 6 (Vista) and making it a bit better here and there. I mean, surely that is a path that is old and tired now and more importantly a path that is not really been working all that well. Normally, I wouldn’t care, however MS have the work force available to making changes more than just incremental! Bigger sweeping changes… Have you seen the sort of research MS has been doing on their ‘prototype’ products? There are people there who are thinking outside the box… so what could they achieve if they put their collective efforts in the right direction?
Personally, I would go back to asking average computer users, or even better, people who have no computer using experience what-so-ever how would they expect a computer to work… umm say 10 years in the future? If what they say is too mundane – ask the same question, but swap out 10 and replace with 100! Ask a similar question to people who already love and know the Mac OS or Linux well, what they expect those OS’s will look like in 10 years time? Their answers, I would hope, would lead to fresh ideas which are not derived from what so many of us are familiar with. Part of the problem seems to be, we are so use to things as they are now, it’s really hard to imagine interesting and groundbreaking possibilities that are not, in some way, variations on what’s currently around.
And what do I think? What do I want out of a computer and hence the OS? Where do I think it will be in 10 years time? Well, since I’ve been accused of writing posts which are too long. I’ll save it for next time. Till then!